At last year’s annual confab of the National Venture Capital Association, VCs decried a dire “capital markets crisis” that was torpedoing their business. At this year’s meeting—now going on at the airport Hyatt hotel in Burlingame—the theme is “Time for Action: A Deciding Moment for the Future of Venture Capital.”
This business is starting to sound like a big-budget Hollywood movie. I half-expected Jason Bourne to come crashing into yesterday’s general session, guns blazing amidst all the guys in sportcoats.
I don’t disagree that the venture business is in a fair bit of trouble. Returns are terrible for many firms, the IPO market remains languid and many LPs are ratcheting back their venture allocations. VCs this year seem particularly vexed by public-policy developments—the threat of stepped-up regulation, an activist FDA and, of course, higher taxes on their profits. (Strangely, they seem to like health-care reform: More insured people apparently means more buyers of drugs and medical devices made by VC-backed companies, I heard yesterday.)
But I hope attendees took particular interest yesterday’s panel on IPOs. On it, three buy-side fund managers spoke fairly candidly about the state of VC exits, and suggested that some of the troubles plaguing the market—or at least the dampened values of those companies that are going public and getting bought—may link back to VCs themselves.
Paul Wick , the lead portfolio manager for the Seligman Communications and Information Fund, said that in pricing deals, “VCs always want too much,” making the deals less attractive. Later, he said venture firms often hang onto big stakes in companies whose stocks shoot up after they go public but tank after they miss their earnings. Seligman said he likes to short those stocks.
Similarly, Henry Ellenbogen, a portfolio manager with T. Rowe Price, said too many companies are still trying to go public with “mid- to late-cycle margins”, and not enough investment in research and development to fuel future growth. Panel members said VC-backed startups also should try to take more control over which investors get big chunks of their offerings, ensuring that long-term holders get bigger allocations of deals so they can better support the stocks.
Finally, the panelists pointed out that a few, good deals are still getting done; it’s not as if nobody’s going public, or all deals are pricing below their expected ranges. And there are some good IPOs in the pipeline, and waiting in the wings: The conference also featured a speech by Reid Hoffman, the co-founder of big-idea, venture-backed LinkedIn, a stellar company that will no doubt have a successful IPO at some point.
Still, Ashim Mehra, of Mazama Capital Management, agreed that “there are less small-cap growth managers” willing to buy smaller, VC-backed companies today. There are also fewer research analysts willing to follow those companies, since securities firms can’t make much money buying and selling those thinly traded stocks.
Those types of structural, market issues do represent a real impediment to an IPO-market recovery for VCs. The financial crisis certainly hasn’t helped matters either. But they’re not the only factors hindering exits. Some VCs who raised huge funds in years past have also pumped a lot of cash into mediocre companies with too many competitors. So many firms have a backlog of IPO or M&A candidates that are less than stellar. VCs shouldn’t be surprised, then, when they don’t make supersized profits off those deals. It ain’t the 1990s.
But good companies will find a way to get out. And if they have trouble with their bankers, they can just call Jason Bourne.
